@Leveraged @boothy21 awesome answers! very helpful! ive done a deep dive on class and i like it. I think the current share price is factoring in somewhere between 40-45% penetration of the SMSF market but what isnt being pricde in is Super price increases and Class portfolio traction.
On price increases my thinking is there is large untapped pricing power. Think MYOB after Bain acquired them...double digits % increases because of a very sticky customer base and relatively small $ base.
On Class portfolio I'm somewhat skeptical as I think a majority of people with SMSFs may have financial planners that already provide them with portfolio reporting (Personal & SMSF) via Xplan and the Wrap platforms. But if your comment that you could see 1 Portfolio for every 1-2 SMSF on the software in 5-7 years comes to fruition then this stock would be worth possibly double based on my simple model.
My only big concern is also the market size. Currently only 600k smsf's, CL1 have 150K, so 450 SMSFs not on class...but Class say 15% are DIY and BGL have 120k on their cloud which im assuming are locked in, that leaves 240k SMSFs...and assuming BGL and CL1 split these 50/50 and with Cl1 run rate of 30K p.a thats only 4 years to take up...excluding the net 20k p.a SMSFs created each year. I also think SMSF fever has peaked, I personally will go with an Aus Super memeber direct account which is bloody cheap and allows me all the control.
Any thoughts, criticisms, ideas are more than welcome!
