Go back and research 2005/2008 and see just how difficult it was...

Go back and research 2005/2008 and see just how difficult it was to raise the original round of capital, pre my small investment 2010 but the machinations were extreme, particularly as Lynas was one out at that point.

Second round was effectively a brownfield, the major ROW customer, and ONLY NdPr customer at any scale, came in over the top once the first phase was secured.

NdFeB production is effectively 85% China & 15% Japan which draws ~6500tpa of which Lynas is supplying ~4200tpa out of 7200tpa.

So effectively Lynas can either supply 100% of Japanese mkt, now incl NdO, or 3000tpa into China for EU customers, Neo, etc. They are now producing more high end La & Ce product than ROW can absorb and extremely focused on growing that mkt, that will be further enhanced by the ability to now add NdO or PrO to specification expanding the LRE product range.

The Q I've asked for a long time now is where exactly is the market for another ROW producer at scale? Difficult to see anyone raising the massive sums required on a wing and a prayer that an NdFeB industry is going to pop up like a mushroom outside the two dominant players. Any operation like ARU proposes is going to require immediate scale to both be competitive and to service debt, particularly as the process will take years to establish. Lynas took 2.5yrs to get the bugs out, with Chinese, Japanese, French, and others, assistance, then another 1.5yrs to scale & stabilise, then another 1.5yrs to optimise, which of course is ongoing.

Where exactly is the customer base to support that effort, principally NdPr but also balance of suite, bearing in mind the fabled EV demand growth is occurring inside China alongside NdFeB expansion. Yet to see any substantiate a business plan that circumvents this inconvenient truth.

Best of luck to any equity 100% dependent on the Dragon, not particularly generous with their table scraps.

Not going to spell out how I've managed LYC, and Malaysia very stupid PITA, but I think we'll see fairly shortly just how advanced their expansion planning actually is.