another development approval gained, page-6

lug

My thoughts are this current price drop is no more than people who got cheap shares dumping. Fundamentals will see this rise again very shortly. Today is also the AGM & when Uncle Kev fires up the loyal & true, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lift tomorrow.

Can't post the entire ABN AMRO MorgansABN AMRO Morgansreport (several pages) but this is the conclusion of the report dated 17 July 2009:

Valuation and target price
Following changes to our forecasts relating to an upgrade to earnings in the Construction division,
our SOTP valuation has moved to A$1.60 (from A$1.55). Due to the uncertainty around the
property book with regard to the timing and quantum of profits, we continue to set our target price
(now A$1.28) at a discount to our valuation.
We retain our Hold recommendation and await the release of the full-year result in August to
provide further clarity on the property book and a general operational review, including an update
on the civil infrastructure business that was acquired in August 2008.
Table 2 : SOTP valuation
Multiple FY10F EBITDA Value (A$m)
Property Book value with
40% discount 205.8
Construction PE multiple 3.0 40.1 120.3
Sub-total 326.1
Net debt 123.2
202.9
Value per share 1.60
Source: ABN AMRO Morgans estimates
Key risks to our target price and valuation include a greater-than-expected decline in construction
margins, integration risk, a further softening of the property market reducing contributions from
developments, or potential growth opportunities not flowing through as expected. Near-term
catalysts include strategic acquisitions that are EPS accretive and may diversify earnings,
significant project wins and further news flow on expected property sales, which may provide
upside to near-term earnings.