As much as i am annoyed with the performance of MON, i suggest...

As much as i am annoyed with the performance of MON, i suggest you step back and look at it as if you were planned to invest from today.

194million shares fully diluted.
POG AUD $1000
Projected cash cost AUD$677
Margin AUD$323

oz per annum at bare minimum 120koz anything above that is bonus

Revenue$120,000,000 (current market cap $81 million)
gross margin $38,760,000
assume $15,000,000 exploration etc etc
net$23,760,000
probably no tax for first year as they are carrying losses to date of about $7million (from memory)

But err of the side of caution and apply 30% tax
2008/09 NPAT $16,632,000
EPS 0.086
PE 10
SP $0.86

For simplicity second year achieves 240koz, costs come down to target of AUD$633
Revenue $240,000,000
gross margin $88,080,000
assume $25,000,000 exploration, etc, etc
net$63,080,000
2009/10 NPAT$44,156,000
EPS 0.228
PE 10
SP $2.27

Now if they deliver cash improvement, production improvement, exploration success, price of gold increases to over US$1000.

From my equation i would buy as the upside reward outweighs the downside risk.

But the problem being expressed on this thread we have all bought in at a much higher price(me included), some may have bought more as the share price dropped.

End result is 240koz per annum would make me very happy. But what if MON does eventually deliver 500koz per annum???? if they can deliver 120koz then 240koz, let me tell MK will do his sales pitch and instos will jump on the band wagon because they will believe 500koz will be the next target.(i plan to sell then...lol)

on a separate post i post an article on harmony gold it make explain why they sold their tenements.