re: robbo is there still time to buy
NHE Thoughts....
Hi guys,
....Been awhile ....
Just thought I would drop in for a crisp Cold Crownie-- (or three)--- with you all ....so to speak..... (those who know me from The PUB, know what I mean)...
....and share a few calm cold crownies, and also the odd few -- NHE/Gulf X snippets,
(1) For starters, lets' Have a gander at yesterdays ETE (Entek) announcement - from their Quarterly Activites announcements... and one gets, imo, a small but interesting CLUE..... as to..... how things may begin to play out potentially ....when the show starts to get back on the Gulf of Mexico way .... Road.....
(2) Also doing ----Some Back of the envelope -----NHE valuation Numbers.....on the Oil Price at $62 a barrel --USA-- and of course Oil Price, is now north of the big ---seven ohhhhh - ie: $US 70 -- which pushes it a tad over $100 Aussie dollars...
So then... let's calmly see.....
How many shares will NHE/Gulf X have on issue, when things kick off, in next couple of weeks.....?
The announcements sort of make it relatively clear.....at least to a degree....
Assuming that, current NHEOA option holders take up the conversion, the proposed capital restructuring should see about # 59,043,870 fully paids, 8,582,407 20 cent option, and 7,500,000 discovery options (only worth considering if NHE discover commercial hydrocarbons).-- and we not be complaining then......
So then; on this sort of broad view, the value of Gulf X, will be determined by its share of the "market worth" of the Gulf Mexico leases they have picked up now (and there may be more soon into the future... do not forget guys....)---- - ie: soon down the track, multiplied.... by the NPV of any income stream.... from confirmed discoveries.
Naturally we cannnot accord any value for that last bit yet.....
The low and high range for NHE's share of the resource estimated to be in place on their stated curently leases is:
Low 1.0 mmbbls oil (this low is after subtracting from the 1.34 mmbbls oil low estimate a maximum possible 12.5% of 2.8 million bbls oil that may be shared with an adjacent lease - ie about 350,000 bbls) 7.7 bcf gas
High
2,021,250 mmbbls 15.05 bcg gas
Not crystal clear from the Reports/announcement whether the resource estimates are for oil and gas in place or recoverable oil and gas.???
.....hmmm betta check that one.....not to worry the thematic is still okay.....
So might this all be apprximately be worth in $$$$ ?
Ground with proven oil in place in the region appears to be trading for around US$15 for a barrel of oil. ---$3.00-- might be more conservative which is always a best approach....
Shall we plug in $3.00 super cautious?
Let's do that for starters... shall we?
These Numbers and modelling of a "value" for Gulf X for what we know now*** ---(See note at bottom of this little missive) -- suggest the low/high valuations could possbile be interpreted
(but not as financial advice of course!!!)---along the following lines.....
Low Price Ball Parkish---
1.0 mmbbls oil X US$15 bbl = US$15 million 7.7 bcf gas X US$3 mcf = US$23.1 million
Total = US$36.1 million or about $50 millions AUD dollars Market Cap
....High end maybe....
2.0 mmbbls oil X US$15 bbl = US$30 million 15.0 bcf gas X US$3 mcf = US$45 Total = US$75 million --well U guys can translate that back to the Aussie....dollar...
Assuming an exchange rate of US0.75 to our Aussie gives:
Low total = A$48 million High = A$100 million
Post consolidation, the value of these leases will be shared among 59M fully paid ord shares, , which would give a value per share of between # A$0.81 and A$1.69.
That is on the Oil Price from say 9 weeks ago .......
Fully diluted for the 8.5M options (and adding in the A$1.7 million their exercising would deliver) --would give a nominal value per share of on these estiamtes, of between..... for the sake of this argument of:-- a imo only, super conservative imo.....
# A$0.74 and # A$1.46, based on the above modelling....
This is of course guys, leaving aside for the time being 7.5M discovery of OIL shares, but then that also adds significant further potential upside, imo only, to the model of the valuation .....
*** Now here is the point.
What we know NOW-- is not.; .....repeat not, ---the alpha and the omega ----of Gulf X.
Again for just one small clue-- see ETE note above on this post.
Whichever Oil/Gas Project--one nominates as an example; from VPE, to ITC to PSA to COE or STU etc etc, what they started out with; at their respective--- Initial Public Offer (IPO) stage, --and what transpired for them over the months and years ahead..... are very signifiant different ..... and usally bigger ...... Companies in size, breath and scope.....
Gulf X is basically at the stage of IPO.
ie: the raw beginning guys......
So, it just.....Might...... be worth steadilly reflecting on this..... and on the intrisinc value of .....today's assets and those possibly in the near future.....rather than too much ..... imho.....about the options and share consolidations... which I will admit.... could be construed, on one view, as -- ....well it .... WAS .... a bit of a Bummer......
But ....bummers.... are part of life.... and they do .... from time to time.....happen.
Does not detract however guys; imo from the significant Margin of Safety and excellent potential unperecevied Value ....yet....that possibly lies ahead for those with ....imho..... just a tad --of patience... imo.
Kindest Regards,
Robbo -----------------------------------------
NHE Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
