OK thanks . I was using 80 as my USD and was including more...

OK thanks . I was using 80 as my USD and was including more shares as I use a forward looking forecast in my numbers ( yep I have a worse case punt at performance shares and options possibly issued in next 12 months).

I also have a nasty number ( 2 cents a share -5 mill) in as a possible settlement for legal stuff in case it all goes wrong and a "million dollar trish " payout.

Increased inventory, warehousing , storage - with new markets and only one production facility you do longer runs, make sure you have inventory for all sales channels. Cheaper insurance than a 2nd production area or facility but you can't afford to not have supply of product.

My last nasty is an assumption that they continue to expand and should be sinking cash into that expansion and advertising in all markets will increase ( god only hope it becomes more effective and is country agnostic so each region can uses same format). . The payback should come 6-12 months later with increased sales etc etc unlike what has happened IMO to date.

For such a simple company it is the managements communication and execution history that has made me put in low end assumptions and a few worst case scenarios.

Either way they should have enough cash which is their saving grace to execute a plan and get cash flow positive and I hope start increasing volume significantly so that a 2nd production ( back up) can be afforded and manufacturing risk and possibly better margin if done in a lower cost country. I am still not convinced manufacturing unless in a country with subsidised electricity will save huge amounts until volume is huge as it comes with other risks and management costs.

YOW turning corner-???? They have to get a fair few things right without hiccups and this execution risk is a drag on the price. Seems that no investors will invest till they see results. Bert needs to consistently put out market share numbers in understandable format especially for new markets they enter and avoid the bullcrap of using % from low base numbers and bullcrap internet social media metrics etc.
The truth detector number is sales and margin.