A good question Integrity, A simple answer would be that Lynas...

A good question Integrity, A simple answer would be that Lynas were looking at producing around 8,000t of Nd/Pr per year with their Malaysian set-up, that currently equates to around 20% of the 40,000tpa 2018 World demand

Looking at the projected supply / demand forecasts and deducting that amount from the coming years supply side, ie the projected deficits for 2019 will now be around 8,000t, 2020 12,000t 2021 18,000t, 2022 25,000t, 2024 32,000t and 2025 38,000t So in a very simplistic form taking Lynas out of the equation is equivalent to bringing the deficit curve forward about 12 months.

Then if we go to the price side we see that there was already a 50% increase in price projected by 2025 (before Lynas is taken out of the equation). ie 10% pa growth between 2020 and 2025

My best estimate then is that prices for NdPr will now rise around 12.5% pa from 2019 onwards.

Sorry I can't reproduce the graphs but they can be found in several previous posts by others.