Pretty much in agreement with all that @nordesmic has said on the subject. Also remember that the high grade UG mineralisation has “hard” boundaries so really is not susceptible to the gold price. They’ll basically mine into the ore body from the boundary where the grade falls from about 20g/t to zero. That boundary is very sharp (probably of the order of meters), not like a big open pit that after you strip it there is a lot of flexibility in which areas you mine over the years, ie staged selective mining and milling of different large scale grade boundaries within a larger pit shell driven by constantly evolving financial modelling in response to gold price fluctuations. ie tweaking. Does anyone think the super pit at Kalgoorlie is running to the original plan laid down in 1989?
I suppose some of the weakness in the current share price can be attributable to the current gold price sitting US$100 below the price used to determine the NPVs for the project, combined with the fact that we are deep into the orphan period (and someone has been holding it down IMO).
Good thing is we aren’t selling gold into the current price or needing to hedge yet. From my understanding its also possible that some European banks are prepared to lend unhedged into Africa.
If the gold price can start testing US$1220 we might finally get a reversal here. I’d say there are more than a few potential catalysts, not least of which (and in no particular order) are the Trump inspired (WSJ Emperor wears no cloths) spasms we saw last week in US 10 year treasury yields (they almost needed a pacemaker on Wednesday) and the ECB this month starting to halve its bond purchases while economic crisis in Italy looks to threaten a Greece cubed type Eurozone crisis. Then we have a very dangerous situation developing in Syria where intermediaries between Iranian proxies in Syria and the Israeli state are thinning out and there is more potential for more direct conflict between these two nations. Russia’s publicised role-out of the S-300 surface to air missile system last week in Syria being a symptom of these increasing and simmering tensions. Gold might look like it has lost its insurance appeal at the moment but its never too long before markets fall back into fear/risk off modes. The news out of the US is suspiciously to glossy at the moment IMO. Why the need to polish it so much I wonder? Esh
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