Hi Wabbit Not sure that's quite right. There's no takeover offer...

Hi Wabbit

Not sure that's quite right.

There's no takeover offer for ITD. If there was, the compulsory takeover hurdle (while listed) is 90% https://www.allens.com.au/pubs/pdf/ma/takeovers-handbook.pdf (p32). I assume the same hurdle exists if unlisted for the minorities. Also the bidder would need to make a formal offer with all conditions specified. What you are suggesting is a takeover by stealth but at some stage either private or listed, the minorities (60%) have to be dealt with.

"In general terms, a takeover bid involves a bidder making individual purchase offers at a specified bid price to all holders of securities in an ASX-listed Australian company or trust. If, by the end of the offer period, the bidder has received acceptances of the offers sufficient to give it a relevant interest in at least 90% of the target securities (and has also acquired at least 75% of the securities it offered to acquire), the bidder can proceed to compulsorily acquire the remaining target securities at the bid price."

What's happening here is effectively a share buy back (price to be announced in January) followed by delisting. The delisting has successfully scared some shareholders and driven the price down so the buy back will be pitched as low as possible. See the miserable offer to the unmarketables: 9.6 cents based on the 5 day average at 29/11/18.

No doubt the buy back at the EGM will be the same 5 day average on the 8/1/19. At best there can be a 5% premium to realise the board's assessment that "the prices of the securities are significantly and materially lower than the underlying value of the Group, and also of the net assets that these securities represent" seems on offer but depending on the .

So first thing's first. The share price needs to be substantially higher than here by the end of December for minority shareholders to get a better 5 day VWAP.

On the one hand this looks hopefull since there have been no sellers below 11 cents since Wednesday. On the other hand if the share price is kept low by continuing supply at 11c then it will be difficult to raise the VWAP by the EGM.

If that's the case and the buy back will be 11 cents followed by delisting after the EGM.