VMX 6.06% 31.0¢ valmec limited

Some of the contracts run into 2020 so not all will be done in...

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  1. 818 Posts.
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    Some of the contracts run into 2020 so not all will be done in FY 19 (eg Origin, Sydney Water and Westside).

    Below I guess at some numbers for the second half of FY19, with my assumption on the flagged improved gross margin on 18.8% last half:

    Revenue     gross margin  gross profit    overheads     profit before tax       NPAT at 30% tax rate
    $50 m            19.5%             $9.75 m           $7.5 m             $2.25 m                   $1.6 m
    $60 m            19.5%             $11.7 m            $7.5 m             $4.2 m                    $2.94 m
    $65 m            19.5%             $12.7 m            $7.5 m             $5.2 m                    $3.64 m

    Adding in the FY 19 1H of NPAT $1.34 m and revenue of $47.5 m gives:
    Revenue full year $ 97.5 m, NPAT $2.94 m with EPS 2.4
                                 $107.5 m, NPAT $4.28 m with EPS 3.4
                                 $ 112.5 m, NPAT $4.98 m with EPS 4
                                        EPS in 2018 was 3.7cps.

    There are a lot of assumptions in the above, but that suggests we need revenue of $60-65 m in the second half to get around the same EPS as last year. Given some of the order book of $80 million runs into next year we presumably need more contracts to do that. The company expected "significantly" higher revenues and earnings in this half. I doubt revenue of $50 m in FY 19 2H fits that description, though with EPS at 2.4 it would justify the current share price with a PE of 10. EPS above that would justify a higher share price and seems to be implied by the company, but we will not find out what  happens for 6 months. The shares are probably a buy if my numbering is correct. If we can build the order book FY 20 would look very good if revenue was running at an annualised rate around $120 million in the second half of this year.



 
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