Some of the contracts run into 2020 so not all will be done in FY 19 (eg Origin, Sydney Water and Westside).
Below I guess at some numbers for the second half of FY19, with my assumption on the flagged improved gross margin on 18.8% last half:
Revenue gross margin gross profit overheads profit before tax NPAT at 30% tax rate $50 m 19.5% $9.75 m $7.5 m $2.25 m $1.6 m $60 m 19.5% $11.7 m $7.5 m $4.2 m $2.94 m $65 m 19.5% $12.7 m $7.5 m $5.2 m $3.64 m
Adding in the FY 19 1H of NPAT $1.34 m and revenue of $47.5 m gives: Revenue full year $ 97.5 m, NPAT $2.94 m with EPS 2.4 $107.5 m, NPAT $4.28 m with EPS 3.4 $ 112.5 m, NPAT $4.98 m with EPS 4 EPS in 2018 was 3.7cps.
There are a lot of assumptions in the above, but that suggests we need revenue of $60-65 m in the second half to get around the same EPS as last year. Given some of the order book of $80 million runs into next year we presumably need more contracts to do that. The company expected "significantly" higher revenues and earnings in this half. I doubt revenue of $50 m in FY 19 2H fits that description, though with EPS at 2.4 it would justify the current share price with a PE of 10. EPS above that would justify a higher share price and seems to be implied by the company, but we will not find out what happens for 6 months. The shares are probably a buy if my numbering is correct. If we can build the order book FY 20 would look very good if revenue was running at an annualised rate around $120 million in the second half of this year.
VMX Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held