Agree 100% Phantom. I need to be a little cautious because UCM has slowly become my third biggest holding after initially being a very small stake after the quarterly before last.
I think it is sometimes hard to tell as a layman exactly how well-regarded medical devices are. Of course the companies are going to tell us that their device is superior or "the gold standard" (love that line, everyone uses it) but to a large degree it is hard for investors without medical backgrounds or access to really verify. From my research though I think you are correct. The technology seems extremely well-regarded, but the company has had difficulty in the past turning that into sales. But like you said, that takes time, and often it comes from word of mouth and reviews as one medical centre uses it and refers it to others, etc.
I think there is so much good news not factored into the current UCM price:
- Misunderstanding of the CPTI code and the impact for UCM. Atcor (ACG) had a 100% share price spike the day they made the same announcement, UCM rose 10%. It didn't help that UCM made the announcement two weeks after ACG and didn't really explain how the new CPTI code would help sales, but I am surprised it still managed to get past the market completely. I emailed Rob and he confirmed the delay in announcing was purely to confirm that the CPTI Code covered the BP+ with the AMA. Credit to ACG's management, they explained the process a lot better in investor presentations and quarterlies so investors knew the potential impact the announcement would have on ACG's sales.
- Tying into that, sales for the BP+ are only just beginning. Nearly all revenue has come from the 1A so far, according to the last earnings call. The new CPT1 code will help greatly with sales of the BP+
- Revised Chinese FDA approval came through on 27 Jan, and with the recommendation from the Chinese ICU Society sales for the 1A will be full steam ahead in China. It is an area UCM is focusing on and I think they will see huge rewards from it.
- I think the last quarterly put people off after the huge revenue growth in the quarterly previous couldn't be replicated. This was in large part to the delay in the 1A approval (27th Jan) so sales were obviously pushed back. Chinese New Year was also cited as a reason. If management are genuine, then there are no excuses in the upcoming quarterly. The R&D tax refund has also come through so we should see a cash flow positive headline figure, and I would love to see underlying cash flow to be positive as well.
Anyway, this post is getting long enough as it is, but fingers crossed we start to see some of the positives coming through in the near future.
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Agree 100% Phantom. I need to be a little cautious because UCM...
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