Hi Tad, There's something that hasn't been discussed here which...

Hi Tad,

There's something that hasn't been discussed here which I think is more important than any of as think.

Just some background:

There's a 20% limit for substantial holders on the ASX before they must launch a takeover. There is a creep provision which basically means an entity can go over this 20% limit over a period of time which explains why some entities can hold up to 23%. Although it's also well known that some entities can hold that limit in retail shares but may also have additional institutional shares, anyway...

The chairman of CAS is a multi-millionaire by the named of Stephen Copulos. From what I've heard he doesn't like lossing money, which is fair enough, I don't like it either strangely. He was buying CAS into the 40 cent range. As the share price was dropping he was taking as many of the capital raising shares as possible until he reached his 20% limit. Some on Hot Copper were suggesting cryptically (defamation) that Stephen may have been trying to lower the share price via a lack of information from the company so he could average down. However that now seems not to be the case obviously since he cannot legally buy any more shares and the share price has more than halved since his last participation (from memory). But even still, even with Stephen averaging down, his average would still have to be around 25 cents ( pure guess). How would Stephen feel about a doubling (at least) in the number of shares at say 2.8 pence or even lower? That would render the value of his shares as a small fraction of what they once were worth. My hunch ... and it's only a hunch, he won't allow that much dilution to happen. That fact that he's the chairman would also give him a fair amount of power over any future decisions obviously.

So whether that means the World bank or another Stratex type of scenario, I have no idea. But my hunch is they won't dilute the shares that much (400 to 500M) at such ridiculously low figures. That they have a plan B. Existing long term holders would be ropeable... well, even more ropeable than they are now if they dilute that much. We may as well sell everything up and go home now! There would be more value in that than to hope in vain that the share price will get up to the 30s again after that much dilution (500M additional shares).

And yeah I know, they are listing on AIM, that's the whole purpose of listing, to raise money and therefore dilute us to oblivion. But I suspect (maybe desperately hoping) they do have something else. They may even make an announcement that could push the share price up substantially before the AIM listing. Although I know that one is a long shot.