Well I have the following thoughts: 7/12/18 - APRA seems to be...

Well I have the following thoughts:
7/12/18 - APRA seems to be against the deal, ANZ super fund customers probably against the deal
21/12/18 - APRA seems neither for nor against, Customers still against the deal, but resignations could help with this.
15/1/19 - APRA neither for or against, ANZ allowing more time for circumstances to change and hoping for customers to possibly be "less rejecting" of the deal.

So I perceive there being a reasonable pathway to the deal still happening. The deal really does seem to be the best arrangement for everybody IMO, as long as IFL has put the disputed past practices behind them, so that the ANZ custodian feels they can approve the deal in good conscience. I'll stick my neck out and say 95% chance with the resignations and zero chance without the resignations. I also think the likelihood of the resignations - is 95%. So I guess I am at 90% - as an observer now as I closed my position. My view is at odds with most of the market, We'll see what happens.