Your consistent, I'll give you that. Good to see a bloke stick to his guns, even if it may turn out to be foolhardy. It can be seen as an admirable trait, I was taught by a couple of my mentors when training for management to make a decision and stick to my guns, right or wrong, I was told it was a sign of weakness to change my mind, apparently even if the circumstances changed, but I always had trouble with that advice, and rarely lost because of it. I never cared what my people thought if I changed my mind and had them running in circles at times, as long as we were winning, & we surely did, in most part due to the mining boom. Try building a $3.2M contracting business to $14.8M over 3 1/2 years, we sat around the $3M mark for 5 years leading up to the boom and had some fun times with it all, some crap too, but we hit 30 odd % EBITA the last year I was there, massive growth with COS, production & admin expenses contained leads to huge profit but at the expense of ones health. It's just a shame it wasn't mine or I'd be filthy rich right now, damn the U.S and their greedy ways. Personally the way the world is, I'd prefer to stay fluid, the world is constantly evolving as are the people, including some directors. A good decision today may be a bad one tomorrow and vice versa. BTW, I don't really trust anyone when it comes to cash, at the end of the day we all work for the same purpose, to make money. We may love our work but we are generally there for the cash in the first place. The further we go and the more we make, the more we need, lifestyles change and it's damn hard to go back when there are expectations to live up to, family or even just plain status for some people, I never did care much for that and tried my best never to get ahead at the expense of someone else (except our competitors), I like to believe I never stood on anyone & always tried to keep it real. Anyway, enough of my stories & life theories, I'm not trying to blow my own trumpet, just trying to get a point across. We all go through changes. Hell, I had a nervous breakdown in the end, I barely slept, worked near on 24hrs a day and all manner of psychological issues cut in, I'm told I "should" never work at the same capacity again, the stress destroys the mind yet I find myself playing the stock market, supposedly one of the most stressful games there is, but I'm loving it, it's giving me something to live for again, not too much cash involved, and oddly enough the stress level is nothing compared to what I lived with for over ten years.
Back to the business of CFE, I'm not going anywhere until I get a clear picture of the company's intent. (Which was the whole purpose of this post, but I got sidetracked, sorry). A little manic atm & a bit all over the shop.
It could go a few ways dependent on off-take and/or funding arrangements. I can see it being fully funded without cost to CFE, and sooner, rather than later, before we run out of cash. After all Cobalt is a hot commodity, and so will copper be again, I bet before the end of this decade copper will be at least back to where it was around 2010-2011 (I know, a bold statement, but the demand is increasing now and I really don't think I'm wrong, although Coal mining is where I'm from, not metals/minerals, I started as a Heavy Industrial Electrician, then moved up to management, I kind of have my head around it, at least a bit anyway). I believe the Copper/Cobalt/Zinc combination will beat the Nickel/Cobalt plays hands down. Especially the processing of Sulphates versus Laterites. The Sulphates are already half way done compared to Laterite ore. Reduced processing cost, leads to higher margins.
If I've lost any of you by now, I do apologise for dragging it out but I've really got nothing better to do atm, I'm up for around 20hrs a day & flat out, I'll soon crash and burn and go down for a week but while it lasts I'm making hay while the sun shines, so to speak.
I've spent a long time on this one, I did see it as a big risk, mainly because of you blokes that were burned, I've spent a long time trying to psychoanalyze it's people to get into their head space, their past mistakes, luck or lack thereof in recent years, and the events surrounding the dividend crash. I've looked from at least dozen angles by now but can't nail it down and for good reason. I'm not trying to spend too much time focused on the past, it's gone. It's what happens now that counts. I'm betting Tony wants his full blown lifestyle back, and the dollars he expected to get for himself when you all lost your dividend, even though you think he's going okay now, these guys always want more. You need to remember he lost out too, maybe not to the same extent of the punters and probably had some up his sleeve, but he would be in a hell of a lot better position if the dividend did come to fruition. Now back to the reason I can't nail it down, it's as simple as it hasn't played out yet, it will be dependent on who buys into it, and the conditions, but I can't see CFE letting it go on the cheap. BTW, I don't believe the FEL/Kosombo deal was on the cheap, FEL are wearing the cost (They'll be sorting an offtake right now if they can get someone to come to the table and pretty sure they already have. The Chinese delegates weren't at the processing plant for the fun of it, once the resource is validated it will all be full steam ahead, they may even be willing to take a risk and put up their cash based on their need for Cobalt and the lack thereof in the general marketplace) My best guess, or at least most desirable outcome would be a fully funded offtake for both CFE & FEL, with minor dilution with guaranteed product supply at a discounted rate to the financer.
As far as getting out, I'll be here to at least 4.0c, but will more than likely stay until the whole project comes to fruition. I really can't see CFE selling this one, it's too big & the synergies between Kosombo, Kipushi Tailings & The Kipushi processing plant are far too great to let the Kipushi Tailings or the processing plant go to the highest bidder, not unless FEL sell Kosombo as part of the deal, which would still be quite stupid unless it's at a huge margin, then it would be a huge win for both FEL, CFE & the investors anyway
With Kosombo being looked after by FEL (CFE getting about 24% of the pie) & the Kipushi plant being slated for modification, I now believe it should be getting used to process both the Kipushi Tailings and the Kosombo ore, if it's upgraded to process the tailings the Kosombo end product will be first class, as pure as the tailings end product and worth an absolute fortune and will surely be game changing for small caps like CFE & FEL. Me, I might get to retire twice.
Good luck to you all & I really hope you don't live to regret your decisions, whichever way you go. I don't believe in regrets anymore, it's not constructive and a waste of time and only leads to pain, move forward, look to the future & try to win, but most importantly be happy and enjoy life. Money really isn't everything and spending your time bitter about the past is no way to live. I really don't know your experience, age or whether you find any of my comments condescending but I've been through a hell of a lot in the last 10 years and really don't care what anyone thinks.
At least I didn't write this at 2 in the morning today, Wife/kids in bed early tonight. Not sure what to do with myself just now. Bloody hot here today (Newcastle) and supposedly snowing at perisher tomorrow, weird weather. Global warming, is it really a conspiracy, doesn't look that way right now but either way the electric vehicle and solar/local battery storage movement isn't going away, too much money going that way for anyone involved to turn back. Even the oil companies are investing in it. Coal & Iron Ore, Aluminium & Copper are here to stay though. We will always need steel & alloys. Maybe superconductors, supercapacitors will transform the way things are done but probably not for a long while yet.
As usual, all of the above are my thoughts & opinions, this time no real fact, just conjecture (And a little dribble thrown in for good measure).
CFE Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held