Roy2U, an excellent point made regards the possibility of TFC...

Roy2U, an excellent point made regards the possibility of TFC smoothing its harvest.

I've been somewhat cautious on the stock's medium-term prospects as oil/heartwood quantities and earnings from harvests in 2019-2020 will be considerably lower than 2017-2018 if the 15 year schedule is rigidly adhered to. But if harvesting can be smoothed and a consistent earnings (and more importantly free cashflow) path can be convincingly demonstrated to when harvest proceeds will materially ramp up in 2021 and beyond, my cautious perspective will need to be revised.

Alternatively to delaying 2016-2017 harvests, TFC could also selectively harvest trees due in 2021 and beyond to top up 2019-2020 harvests. Such an exercise will reduce TFC's theoretical valuation as it will remove several years of heartwood generation for some trees (maybe 200ha from almost an 4,000ha interest), but management may consider it worthwhile to be able to provide clients with consistent supply over the coming 5 years