Ox - Why is the next 6 months a write off??
The issue they have will be fixed in less than one month. Then they can feed the plant all they want with their high grade sulfide.
This quarter will be their best for the year, as even if they just scrape into guideance of 125k for CY18, they will need to produce (Q1:26,386)
(Q2:23,604) (Q3:29,941) (Total to date: 79,931 ounces) just 45,069 ounces, which I think is clearly achievable considering that recoveries are improving, the contractor is now fully in control of all parts of the mining operations and sulphide is able to be fed to the plant, even if its not 'high grade' 1.84g/t etc. I mean, the Sept grade was just 1.26g/t. Clearly they are doing better than that already! To give more perspective, the Dec 2017 quarter saw them produce 48k ounces at a grade of 1.65g/t, AISC was US $933. Considering we have a much cheaper contractor, 12mw of power now being fed into the plant, better recoveries, hopefully better grade, or just similar (considering that last year they had a big hit of high grade, which BDR won't have this quarter, just normal ore, with sulfide, that is the big difference).
The average AISC for the year so far is - Q1-1204, Q2-1306, Q3-962 = AV - US $1157 (very roughly) meaning, they need the AISC to get down to at least US $940 to get within guidance, and obviously even lower if they want to be well within guidance which they have said will be at the upper end of it.. Before all the other costs etc of the plant upgrade, BDR could be looking at bring in around (assuming average US gold price of $1220) $13m US. As they are doing basically no drilling exploration, all of that can go towards debt payments etc.
I am really really perplexed how this announcement is anything but extremely positive.
Unlike the start of this year, the March quarter will see a plant that can, if it wants to, process 100% sulfide, at normal reserve grades! A crappy March quarter could change from 26k produced, at 1.06g/t, to just 1.5g/t, and suddenly, they produce 42k at a much much reduced AISC!
The contractor can actually feed this plant over 4mtpa! It can move 32mtpa dirt, meaning the plant is not going to go hungry again!
I am extremely frustrated that BDR have their own equipment, that is just sitting there gathering dust.
Why have we got no forecast for CY2019?? Especially when things are now humming and we are, oh, yeah, voting on a merger of unequal's.
Oh how I wish I could know what the main holders of BDR are thinking right now...
