This is an excellent resource for anybody wanting a better understanding of the project - Timor Smelter Study, also commissioned by the previous board. They really seem to have done a lot more work on this project compared to the current board.
The study appears much more genuine than anything we've seen recently, and is quite comprehensive. It covers a lot of questions raised by HC members recently, including myself, such as:
- furnace details & smelting process (pages 16-20)
- supply of manganese (75% Indonesian, 25% African - pages 9, 14 & 15)
- supply of coal (16kt in Year 1, ramping to 125kt, barged from Kalimantan to Tenau port- pages 22 & 27)
- power requirements (approx. 8MW per smelter - page 22)
- margins on exported ore ($US125/t for local ore, US$75/t for overseas - page 5)
- pre-production capex (US$6.8m per smelter - page 21).
The original study required US$67.5 over 4 years, with 2 smelters to be installed each year (US$17m/yr). The new study only references US$17m for the first 2 smelters, with the additional 6 smelters added over 6 years, or as the Triple C report explains: "built in stages as the ore supply chain develops".
GMC were also planning to develop their own mine, Timor Leste, in the original study, to supply up to 180kt/yr of manganese. The initial export quantities were 60kt in Year 1 and 90kt in Year 2.
GMC would need to export 63.7kt of untreated ore @ US$125/t to fill their current funding gap, so they wouldn't be in production before 2019 if that is truly their plan. Those margins would also be different now. I'm not sure if they're better or worse.
GMC Price at posting:
0.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
