Ann: Trinity Releases FY09 Results Guidance , page-2

hey fellas, does anyone have any thoughts on this results guidance?

i've done some quick NTA calcs and the discrepancy between any revised NTA based on the guidance, and the market price of sub 10 cents, would lean towards the market pricing in liquidation of the group?

any critical reasoning to why this will/wont happen?

based on 08/09 divestments of circa $45m (albany creek, cairns, jindalee and nerang) and the lorne resort investment of $20m, TCQ group debt should be sitting comfortably under the $200m mark (ive calculated it to be circa $180m but this is of course only back of envelope stuff)

this should be comfortably covered by their direct investments (revised to a book value of circa $160m based on forecast impairment charge of $46m and net divestments of $39m)

and the groups unlisted fund investments of $63m (revised downwards based on the forecast impairment charge of $54m)

plus then you have the inventory whould will be substantial etc etc

i'm in two minds in terms of taking a position given i dont understand the business well enough and am worried about the serviceability of the debt and overheads if funds management is lost based on the IAB tender

my other worry is the legitimacy of the book values on the real estate assets, but i guess i cant do anything about that until the actual report is out

any comments from anyone familiar with the stock would be appreciated

obviously DYOR and im just doing back of envelope calcs here