Taken from my archives of MHR presentations in 2011...
Here is my #1 concern - look at the low case IRR sensitivity plot based on an EUR 362MBoe on Capex $7.5M for Gonzales county acreage sold by MHR to PVA. While I could create a decline curve based on what has been observed in Atascosa county I don't want to mislead because I don't have all the data.
If the EUR was only say 240MBoe are 75% of that is produced in first 3 years (so 160MBoe) its going to take an operating Netback of $45/Boe (which is high) to cover the Capex cost roughly.
That is why I am so interested in the EUR/IRR numbers that are yet to be disclosed.
And historically these were the wells drilled as noted in the July 2011 MHR presentation to which the above also was taken.
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