If I could encourage y'all to read this report http://gswindell.com/sp158207.pdf
to get some real understanding of the production of the various counties and where Atascosa fits (in Fig 2 it sticks out like dogs balls that Dewitt, Karnes & Live Oak are the prime acres).
There are thousands of wells now in the databases that make up the type curves. You are always going to get outliers - those way above (which are always highlighted) and those way below (can't recall these ever getting a mention). But statistically shale plays are going to roughly follow the decline curve for the area based on the EUR.
I think this paper (geologically focused) shows very clearly & visually why Atascosa county is not such a good acreage spot for EFS (or other formation as well) .....