Ann: Trading Update, page-41

wonderful modelling dang. compliment you on that.

i've seen plenty of people quote both the 'old testament' and the 'new' one as you two are doing.

im pragmatic - accounting book values arent solid. just look at 2008. so when the whole math is based on collective 'rule of thumb guides' - i use real world market behaviours to tell me what the probable outcome is.

as i said before - the real world pointer is that share prices in equivalently positioned businesses in the US, with marginal negative cashflows and positive but falling nta in the same and related industries are uniformly now a long way north of their bottom price in other markets.

that tells me what 'going concern' share price action will look like.

if you dont think the local sector will return to being a going concern - and thats a separate economic analysis - - its pointless to be reviewing it regardless of how good its breakup value might end up being - as there are guaranteed to be better investment opportunities out there.

i like a fundamental analysis approach - but the problem is that it still relies on imperfect forward looking assumptions

thats in part why Croasian was complaining about getting burnt by STO when it started falling from 4.80 - which suggests having bought in high 4s low 5s on fundamentals i would guess


in my experience the market makers typically push stocks down well below their 'mark to market nta/ fair value' just prior to the share price recovery - in a bid to flush weak hands. Hence STO being pushed to 3.30 just as all the fundamentals started turning north - something i dont believe was coincidence given the unnatural run of US drawdowns in Oct/Nov in what is a natural big build time of year

had all the hallmarks of Glencore/Trafigura flow mgt

i expect we could see the sp go as low as 26.5c - to the next support - or - less likely - but as low as 21c - which would mark a double bottom and be a technicians wet dream result

but Im convinced the medium term pathway for price is up significantly from 30c unless China's debt bomb goes off.

i have no doubt too that various government instrumentalities are actively working to support higher oil prices behind the scenes, not just at opec meetings