It's good to see an open discussion on this thread without personal attacks.
Goldbear I certainly agree MRM is derisked by the price and that a recovery in sentiment due to the oil price could allow refinancing either through the banks or a capital raising. Also agree that investing involves risk.
The art to me is taking minimal risk, never taking a loss is a point of pride to me. Proof that risk and return is not correlated in my case.
As AHS says the OSV market will see a 12 month lag as boardrooms catch on to what yellowfin knows which is that the present low spending is absolutely rediculous.
This is just another cycle, like all the others.
AHS I think you are watching the OSV market and have a good handle on it, however with respect the shareprice has contaminated your psychology in my view. You are looking at past trends and expecting them to continue but the low spending in the industry is setting the stage for oil price shocks at some point (don't ask me when).
"Future stages of the OSV industry path to recovery will see more boats activated from stack however these will effectively be run into the ground with negligible mainntance. At the same stage some stacked boats will begin to be scrapped as capital expenditure needed will not be forthcoming. All this will take some time before the OSV industry starts itself to get into balance from the supply side."
With that statement you are condemning an entire industry to obsolescence. Are you sure about that?
I expect myself what will happen is that the market will wake up to the fact that the world is not awash with oil and at that point everyone will want vessels and will have to pay a premium again.
You have to buy when sentiment is negative, the bizarre corollary is that you need to buy when there seems to be good reasons not to. All analysts faced with the same information to beat them you don't need to be smarter you need divergent thinking/different tools.
Where I disagree with everyone is only in the philosophy of investing which to me is in fact by far the most crucial aspect. I will always go for safe over spectacular.
Goldbear this means I have no view on when the shareprice will recover. To me buying based on fear of missing out is as bad a reason as selling because the shareprice may fall.
The only reason to buy is because you know a business is cheap, financial performance, position are acceptable (or better very strong) and the industry is not going extinct.
Dang, this was a debt service default your arguments are to me not compelling and I am surprised you are making them given your purported influences but best wishes with it - let's agree to disagree.
As I have said I think this will play out well but am not sure, definitely wouldnt bet against it.
Hopefully we can all keep track and discuss in the new year as events play out.
