There's $790m of vessels and $634m of shareholders equity. The vessels are worth that but there is no liquid market for them at present (No new sales announced).
So if oil does not recover in the next 6 months where does the money come from to pay the $75m debt? $20m from EBITDA, $10m from vessel settlement?
The worst case scenario is not an orderly liquidation but a forced administration by the bank and even an orderly liquidation is not certain to recover $356m for those vessels which maybe worth $790m.
I personally think oil will recover in the next 6 months but the risk is that I am wrong and I can't be sure of it. My best estimate is that oil will recover around July in earnest.
I also think the banks will be reluctant to push the company into liquidation, I think they are being unreasonable demanding accelerated repayment here.
Chances are it's going to work out very well from here but don't pretend it's certain or risk free @goldbear77 as that most definitely is not the case.
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