Risk to reward now is sticking out like a sore thumb.I'm a buyer...

First 31 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
MakinMoney

2,453 Posts.

1

05/02/19

11:42

Post #: 37333308
Share

Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"Looking for FY 19 480M NPAT (FY 18 440M) and we got 200M H1 so need 280M H2 to meet consensus and 41c EPS. Off the pace substantially if we get FY19 400M NPAT then EPS is at ~34c. Sad state of affairs - teleconference at 10am will be interesting."

I'm not a real fan of BLD, but this update, while a downgrade", is not as bad as your numbers imply, I don't think.

Remember that there is quite meaningful seasonality in BLD's 1H vs 2H earnings, typically of the order of magnitude 45%:55%.

So, applying usual seasonality to the $200m 1H figure gives implied 2H number of ~$250m.

Plus there is will be $30m of Property EBITDA which will all be booked in the 2H, which will add a further ~$20m of NPAT.

So, all things being equal, that takes us to $200m + $250m + $20m = $470m.

In other words, the $480m full-year expectation you have stated (and I'm not sure who you are referencing with that number) is not way out of reach.

The trouble, I sense, is that the market is likely to have been looking for more than $480m of NPAT for the full-year... probably closer to $500m.

That all said, based on the share price performance in recent months, it looks like this downgrade has been largely priced in to the valuation of the company.

Of course, there will be the usual sticker shock share price impact over the next day or two.

..

Expand

Risk to reward now is sticking out like a sore thumb.

I'm a buyer and then accumulator if it dips any lower.

In 1 - 2 years, BLD will bring with it some solid gains.

The market is giving us a chance.

Last edited by MakinMoney: 05/02/19

BLD Price at posting: $4.62 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Here are three global stocks you should watch

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

GRL

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

There are more pages in this discussion • 8 more messages in this thread...

First 31 Last

Add BLD (ASX) to my watchlist

Risk to reward now is sticking out like a sore thumb.I'm a buyer...

Top Stories

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Here are three global stocks you should watch

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Featured News