Ann: Trading Update and Revised FY2019 Guidance, page-19

First 19 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
DAVIDWH

60 Posts.

04/02/19

15:03

Post #: 37323651
Share

Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"Looking for FY 19 480M NPAT (FY 18 440M) and we got 200M H1 so need 280M H2 to meet consensus and 41c EPS. Off the pace substantially if we get FY19 400M NPAT then EPS is at ~34c. Sad state of affairs - teleconference at 10am will be interesting."

I'm not a real fan of BLD, but this update, while a downgrade", is not as bad as your numbers imply, I don't think.

Remember that there is quite meaningful seasonality in BLD's 1H vs 2H earnings, typically of the order of magnitude 45%:55%.

So, applying usual seasonality to the $200m 1H figure gives implied 2H number of ~$250m.

Plus there is will be $30m of Property EBITDA which will all be booked in the 2H, which will add a further ~$20m of NPAT.

So, all things being equal, that takes us to $200m + $250m + $20m = $470m.

In other words, the $480m full-year expectation you have stated (and I'm not sure who you are referencing with that number) is not way out of reach.

The trouble, I sense, is that the market is likely to have been looking for more than $480m of NPAT for the full-year... probably closer to $500m.

That all said, based on the share price performance in recent months, it looks like this downgrade has been largely priced in to the valuation of the company.

Of course, there will be the usual sticker shock share price impact over the next day or two.

..

Expand

One point that appears to have been missed in the current discussions is the bucketing that N Q is copping . Boral is always the big winner after a wide spread flood from both building and road repairs.12 months high margin work starts as soon as the rain stops .
Politicians from both sides will be tripping over each other throwing money at these marginal seats.

BLD Price at posting: $4.52 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 47, 2024

GRL

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

LPE

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

SIG

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

DUI

Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M

PYC

Scientific conference spotlights PYC's work on blindness disease treatment

There are more pages in this discussion • 20 more messages in this thread...

First 19 Last

Add BLD (ASX) to my watchlist

Ann: Trading Update and Revised FY2019 Guidance, page-19

Top Stories

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 47, 2024

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M

Scientific conference spotlights PYC's work on blindness disease treatment

Featured News