Ann: Trading Halt, page-18

KKLL,

One reason (IMHO) that posters, including me, are anticipating a WA IO sustaining contract win is that we know those ducks are lined up waiting to be shot. However, you are right though about the possibility that it could be Golding - they have certainly been doing well to date. Anyway, I think it's sometimes called 'availability' bias: we focus on the information that is front of mind (I think Magellan are including it as a type of 'anchoring' bias - https://www.magellangroup.com.au/insights/10-cognitive-biases-that-can-lead-to-investment-mistakes/)

Pioupiou,

Same here, lots of skin in the game for me. One advantage of that situation is I feel it predisposes you to treat the investment as if it you privately owned the entire company (which is what, as I'm sure you know, what professional value investors suggest you do). 

FWIW, for me 'Buy' means I would buy IF I had cash and I was not a holder or the size of my position was below a risk focused limit, Hold means not cheap enough to add to my position regardless of what I hold already but a comfortable business to own. Sell means regardless of what I hold, these prices are overvalued and I would reduce if I had a position. All this means I might be selling even if my recommendation is buy, if I feel like I'm holding way to much from a risk/portfolio management perspective (or I just need cash!). An analyst in a funds manager could have a Buy rating on a company at the same time as the Portfolio Manager is selling, would be my justification.

Maybe repeating myself but with NRW, the dynamic I find myself dwelling on most for the last 6-9 months is the tension between the 'cyclical' mining services idea (implying that I need to look for an exit at the right time) AND on the other hand infrastructure green pastures. That is championed by the idea of an Australian recession (internal (housing market?) and/or global event driven), with a subsequent emphasis on fiscal pumping (QE having being devalued to some extent and the oftentimes market narrative of the next approach being more fiscal) and the public funded infrastructure build meaning NRW/Golding is no longer limited by the mining cycle. This idea would leave NRW being an excellent longer term significant 'hold' for me.

(BTW I just arrived home and plan to look as eps estimates tomorrow as promised but will wait for this announcement obviously!)

Cheers and GLTAH,
pb