Good post. There are only a few small things I would add.
1. You have to consider what the differential is in conversion price between tech grade Carbonate to Hydroxide and Spod to Hydroxide. I am not sure what the cost of Tech Grade to Hydroxide is? Spod to Hydroxide c. $3k. This is actually helpful though as it means Hydroxide prices should remain up if Tech grade carbonate is required as a feed source as COP for someone like ORE isn't that cheap. Alternatively it drives quicker substitution to spod which keeps spod prices high regardless.
2. Hydroxide actually only requires approx 7 tonnes of Spod where Carbonate takes 8. This is again helpful for HR given Hydroxide sells for a premium. Higher price and less feedstock required means good margins for everyone.
3. I do agree with your view on HR and Hydroxide longer term. Short term dynamics could be interesting though. China has backed away from policy this week that pushed for higher energy density which means we might see Carbonate get a reprieve ST as it effectively will likely extend the life of 622 and other lower density battery chem that can use Carbonate whereas 811 requires Hydroxide specifically
A40 Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
