1/ Raising at a premium to current price @ $65 c (and close to all time high) in a depressed commodity market speaks volume– sensational news
2/ I’d have been reasonably satisfied with raising @60c too but wouldn’t have been too happy with anything less like 50c etc, but ADT has gone 1 step ahead @65c
3/ The reason that raising @60c at least IMO was preferable as it is a very important psychological level. 60c was past resistance in May-June meteoric rise and has been a bit of resistance till recently. Raising above this gives further support for 60c to form a very strong support base
4/From point of view of capital raised, I ideally wanted at least 10 million. 15 million is a decent figure. Keep in mind that we also need enough new shares for instos to get set instead of having to continue to play accumulation games.
5/ We now have around $21.5 million cash and are very well cashed up for further drilling
This is one of the best votes of confidence we could possibly have at this point
As JID mentions, ADT is in a future position for a Solgold style battle (BHP, NCM, etc) in future.
Also refer the chart of Solgold, and see the meteoric rise from around 3 in June 2016 to around 47 in May 2017. As I mentioned some days back, it is important to understand the mining life cycle (Refer chart linked there). Best returns would ideally be around NOW, as ADT is still barely into the initial speculative hype cycle. I say barely because apart from MAy-June, we havent made it to HC most discussed stocks
9/ Figures from Ashanti note and few new ones added by me below –
a/ Shares on Issue: 130,795,596 + new shares: 23,076,923 = Total shares 153,872,519
Mentioned also that company reserves the right to accept oversubscriptions. So, this could change, as I wouldn’t be surprised if this is oversubscribed
b/ Market cap(undiluted) of 153 million shares @ 65c = $100,017,137
c/ Options = 19,500,000
d/ Breakup of options (taken from old ADT presentation) = Options: 9m 40c, 2 Year Unlisted Options (Directors, Management , Advisors)
9.5m 20c, 5 Year Unlisted Options Esc. 24 months (Founders)
1m 60c, 3 Year Unlisted Option (CEO)
AT least as of now, it seems likely that most to all options would be taken up in time to come Potential future cash from above options if all are taken up = 3.6 million + 1.9 million+ 0.6 million = $6.1 million
e/ Cash - Oct 31 approx $6,470,000
ADT has been prudent to raise cash when we are still cashed up and in a position of strength
Also good to see that we have plenty of cash left from inception still.
f/ New cash after raising = 6,470,000 + 15,000,000 = $21,470,000
Very well cashed up now
g/ EV(undiluted) = 100,017,137 - 21,470,000 = $78,547,137
Still dirt cheap and potential for heaps more as can be seen
i/ Diluted market cap less cash= 112,692,137- 21,470,000 = $91,222,137
Undiluted market cap is approx. 100 million @65 c. So it is easy for quick calculations of potential market price in future, if you believe that ADT could be any multiple of 100 million market cap in future.
10/ It was plainly apparently in last few trading sessions that despite great news something was holding it back.
IMO, this is most likely to be negated soon (despite Aussiebulls’ earlier correct sell calls, this particular call does not take into account this well managed raising). I’d be surprised if something still holds the share price back in time to come. So ideally, we are good for a sharp rise anytime soon. This would also align perfectly with Elliot wave - wave 3 that I mentioned some days back
Wave 3 is the point of recognition - when the broader market starts to get aware of the company. ADT would likely make it into HC most discussed if that happens
11/Anything is possible in our “casino market” though and if share price still shockingly makes it back to old 40 levels, etc. (nothing surprises me anymore) then 40c would appear to be a great buying opportunity at that price. Think of it – if Sandfire is prepared to buy everything at 65c, then what should that tell you?
12/Very well handled by ADT management so far – almost flawless. Great team. Great results.
I’ve been wanted to attempt to trade ADT ever since 20 c but thankfully have not had the guts to sell my shares as I’ve kept a longer term scenario in my mind which is slowly beginning to start to eventuate.
Good luck ADT shareholders
ADT Price at posting:
63.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
) then 40c would appear to be a great buying opportunity at that price. Think of it – if Sandfire is prepared to buy everything at 65c, then what should that tell you?
(20min delay)
