AVL printed a stunning PFS yesterday. A 40% IRR is mind blowing....

AVL printed a stunning PFS yesterday. A 40% IRR is mind blowing. The thing is... it does more to TMT's valuation than theirs. This is why:

KEY PFS differences (preview) maths only.

AVL discount rate 8% v TMT 10% ~ 25% impact to NPV.

Variation +/-35% v our (wave international) +20%/-15%. Prolifix et al are throwing terrible memes at us over there about our PFS quality but this says a fair bit.

Exchange rate 74c v our 75c. Okay.

And the BIG one... our NPV is worked with Y0 cash flow - CAPEX, Y1 nil and Y2 $20m...(or the same net discounted effect) before ramping into full profitability ($236m at 75c.) in Y3.

AVL have included full freight Y1 profit in their NPV. It's a big call and a very different methodology. Perhaps they are confident they can achieve this, great well it's fair to say what they can do we can do better.

I'm working via phone only so can't get much done today but a like for like comparison should make for good reading as some stage tonight.

I will not be bagging AVL at any stage as they will too go to mine and make great profits for their holders (incl. me!) . Some have sold and more will today in anticipation of a nice entry point into TMT tomorrow. This is a fact which is going to rub some of them the wrong way, the best thing we can do as a collective is generate insightful discussion and steer clear of name calling. I wouldn't mind a go on their gas pipeline at some stage so let's be nice hey Okay?