It's been interesting following the trading in RGI over the last 18 months.
Firstly there are those sellers presently sitting there in the 36.5 to 40c range about 160k. To me that is utterly stupid, RGI could come out and announce the deal of the century any minute. These sellers either watch their screens 24/7, rely on text messages (dangerous), or don't care. Not saying the deal they're about to announce will be the deal of the century, but why take the risk.
RGI floated at 20c in Feb 2017, and rose to a high of 55c when they announced the EuroAg deal for 240 units. It then drifted down to a low of 25c (on no news) by mid Sept. On Sept 28th they announced the Amfil order for 100 units. The sp shot up to 41c, a 60% increase on one small order. It then went on to reach an all time high of 70.5c on Jan 17th this year. There was no significant news in that period, I believe the rise was due to a fund buying in, that's what happens if you want a reasonable quantity in an illiquid stock.
The price then drifted back down to the 40c range, the Miracle Valley $2.3m order pushed it up to 47c, but soon dropped back and reached a low of 33c before the Gibio deal was announced pushing the price back up to 43c. It has again drifted to the present price.
I don't think the market has priced any of the Gibio deal into the sp. We wont see any of the rewards of this deal till next year & the market is fairly short sighted. I think once it sees some contracts in place & their growing facility starting to take shape, it will be a different story & may even factor in the next 10 facilities after this one.
If this new deal they're about to announce is anything like the Gibio deal, the market might just say...maybe they are onto something here with 2 big contracts.... and factor these perishable food facilities into the sp. After all, the market got excited about the 100 Amfil order, pushing the sp up 60%
RGI Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
