Yeah - that is reasonable Thunder. Also they didn't sell...

Yeah - that is reasonable Thunder. Also they didn't sell everything - which is a possible signal (as how many recipients would have bought if they were selling the lot?). Also many of the selldown crew can sell quietly now, within the listing rules.

However they are selling at a 40% discount to the peak last year, and at a low price relative to the outlook presented by analysts who are (on fnarena) stating prices of $640 to $7.50 as targets, with DB and Morgans saying buy since november 2015.

So we have the following tangible factors:
Selling the dip by management.
Multiple changes to the industry long term with 1. the AIA act creating a hump in applications recently, and 2. the ANZ single desk system abandoned due to the Global patent prosecution highway initiative as one factor. (Which could eventually reduce work loads dramatically).
https://www.iplawwatch.com/2016/11/...-zealand-single-desk-patent-system-abandoned/
https://www.ipaustralia.gov.au/abou...-prosecution-highway-pilot-program-set-launch

So with these factors in mind - who knows the most, and what was their decision with the information at hand within the context they were presented? It was sell the dip! I would back management over the analysts and the purchasers.

Look at game theory relating to signalling fitness or the "jumping gazelle" strategy. This jumping gazelle jumps high in the air to signal to a Cheetah that they are not worth chasing as they are too fit. Obviously ten seconds of jumping is not evidence of endurance. Well only selling half is not evidence of fitness either, but the rest of the Gazelles know which Gazelles to stay one step ahead of if they are getting chased.