I am posting after having held it before and having continued to...

I am posting after having held it before and having continued to follow the company.
As for Sundance, I'm not a bitter holder but if i had a half a billion and had to invest it in an IO mining project, SDL has what appears to be a much higher grade resource and i would put the $ with them over this any day.
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I also held Hunnu Coal in the distant past and believe that gains i made there were very lucky timing. The acquirer would probably be pretty sour about that transaction right now.
I went into Haranga at a similar time when there was excessive hype around management.
Since then, this and other Garrison Capital backed companies have done pretty terribly by my reckoning.
Ones that i drew associations with some time ago include AVB (unfulfilled expectations), LIN (looking rubbish), WOF (poor performance), CCZ (almost gone), CRJ (gone).

The figures I used before were derived from the company presentation on 18/02/2014 (page 23) since which time I don't think that the company has done much to justify their salaries.

That presentation has a timeline which says they should be building the mine now and in production by 2016. Go figure!

I constructed a DCF using their inputs of a 12.5% discount rate, US131.5/t concentrate price, 16 year mine life, 3mtpa production rate, cash costs of $64 and the $562 million capex that they forecast to bring about their NPV.

Then I made my own adjustments to those figures given some changes to risk assumptions and cash costs,
When using cash costs of $70 (rather than their 64) and prices of $114, that is when my DCF calc came out as an NPV of zero.

My DCF calc is probably not worth the paper it is written on but i don't think theirs is either and that is probably why it isn't in any presentations I have seen lately.

Anyway, given current iron ore prices and the outlook, the inputs in their model from early 2014 are pretty unrealistic.

Sure, the Chinese might buy this but i don't think they will make a dime doing it.

Seriously happy to be proven wrong but without a takeover, I don't think that this is going anywhere .


All IMO DYOR