Ann: Trading Halt , page-38

I've crunched some numbers for 2013 FY and have come up with the following estimated valuations, using the Montgomery valuation method (for what it's worth!)

12% required return: $2.26 to $2.49
13% required return: $1.98 to $2.20

For Skaffold users, I believe 13% RR is used by Skaffold. Previous valuations were $3.41 for 2013, so cap raising is having a heavy impact on value. Extremely stupid to pay the recent dividend!

The estimates I've come up with are based on the following impact of the capital raising and:

Total shares on issue rising to approx 94 Million
Total shareholder equity to be $196Million
Forecast ROE 13.6%
Forecast EPS 24 cents per share (based on low range of company forecast of $23 Mill NPAT for 2013)
Forecast Dividends paid of 8 cents per share (based on 20% div payout ratio)

Just a guide only - run your own numbers in case I'm wrong.

In answer to whether $2.10 is value, it's looks like not flash for 2013 (unless you value at less than 13% RR). A 13% ROE is crap given MCE's previous performance. Will be interesting to see the interest at $2.10.

Personally I wouldn't buy MCE unless it was < $1.60. I think investors really need to look to 2014. I only hope management don't run them into the ground.

Also I believe an ASIC investigation is needed into recent trading. Very curious how the market price rapidly descended. Somebody obviously knew about the cap raising and the large loss. Thought MCE was forecasting a break even result?