Ann: Trading Halt-SYR.AX, page-173

SYR has closed at 1.735 with an intra day low of 1.725, and has been trading with a $1 handle since last few days.

None of this should be a big surprise if one was paying close attention all along

I’ve mentioned all these possibilities since ages.

I mentioned of the risks of overvaluation right from $6.4 in 2016, 2 years back after which SYR just had 1 green day above 6.4 ever since.

I’ve consistently warned of the key levels
2; 2.24; 2.39/2.44/2.5; 2.64; around 2.8; 3; 3.2 (3.15 and 3.25); 3.45 to 3.53; 3.65; 4; 4.5; 4.72

Most of these key levels were identified in 2016 itself as mentioned earlier – so hardly any surprises here

Although around 2.24 was the low last year, I mentioned that I thought that upto $2 could still be a cushion for further falls and that did happen for a while.

A break of $2 finally led to a further swift acceleration in the decline in recent days

I came back to commenting on SYR after a whole year in June 2018 (after June 2017) when SYR was $3 and I again warned of risks, and warned that if SYR falls below $3, there is a possibility of lower key levels being tested. SYR barely managed a few % higher on a few days and has lost more than 42% (from $3) of its value just since my June 2018 warnings – so my timing was right again this time around.

I warned over last couple of months that there was a bearish channel that was developing since many months

I warned of the risk of shorters and have consistently warned of this since 2016-17 itself. Shorters have gone all out to hammer SYR over last 1-2 weeks. Around 7 red (more than 0.5% capital shorted) days in recent times including more than 2.5 million gross shorts on Oct 11

Recent news on fire, macro weakness etc. were just catalysts for the share price fall but breakdown of key levels over past couple of months, SYR bearish channel, overall commodities weakness etc. were already telling a story since some time that this was already possibly on the cards. There were no major surprises overall if people were paying attention.

So where to from here? Wish I knew for sure. Most of what I mentioned in recent months was based on research accumulated from 2016 itself as key levels already communicated everything relevant to me, and almost everything I mentioned since June over last few months once again materialized.

From here on SYR obviously has to prove to the market that it indeed justifies its valuation. SYR holders would have to hope that shorters decide to cover and move on. I’ve not analysed at all as barely follow SYR nowadays but just a quick look at very long term chart shows some possible support around 1.6, if at all SYR continues to fall, after which further falls if any can start to get very ugly. But I repeat that this is just a first glance opinion.

Hopefully SYR holders reflect on my comments all the way from $6.4 in June 2016 and now finally realize the long term scenario I thought I was seeing (rightly) all along.

Good luck.