Ann: Trading Halt-SYR.AX, page-165

Sharing some thoughts below –

1/ In last 2 comments, I first mentioned that SYR could have healthy rise from 2.39 and it did have a rise of 15% to 2.71.

Once it fell from those highs, I thought this could be part of a pullback and then a rise back to upper trendline of bearish channel. This second analysis might need to be reanalyzed as this latest news changes a lot of stuff. I’m genuinely not sure what to expect. As I mentioned in earlier comments, this is a very key zone and anything can happen. For this reason, although I was contemplating a trade, I decided not to do so, as this zone can be so unpredictable

We probably need to see if lower trendline gets touched once again like how 2.39 was touched and concept would be similar to last month’s analysis

2/ Key levels

2; 2.24; 2.39/2.44/2.5; 2.64; around 2.8; 3; 3.2 (3.15 and 3.25); 3.45 to 3.53; 3.65; 4; 4.5; 4.72

As always, I’ve seen most of SYR’s movement in terms of key levels that I mostly identified in 2016 itself and have quite consistently been respected.
SYR has gone in for this 100 million raising at the key level

3/ I always admired how SYR managed 2 mega raisings in 2015/2016 of some 200 million each and at high prices. Second one in 2016 was almost at all time high. This raising is at a multi year low

4/ Just a reminder – 2.23 was the multi year low last year during the Ides of March share price massacre. I’ve come back to commenting after a year in June and in my few comments, I’ve consistently mentioned that I think 3$ is going to be some sort of resistance and that shorters might be aiming for earlier key levels. We’ve just had a handful of closes above $3 since, and we are now having a CR at one of the lowest key levels - so my fears were clearly right.

5/ I’m not saying that this is going to happen but most stocks fall down to capital raise price sooner or later, as shareholders sell if share price is higher and buy back their stock cheaper in the CR.

Placement shares are going to be issued soon but SPP is going to drag on for a month. Shares of many companies often experience muted gains during the SPP period

6/ I mentioned a potential "judgment day" scenario (since final key levels were coming close) sooner or later in earlier emails. If at all, price does reach capital raise level (which generally does) of 2.23, then that scenario has arrived

7/ 2.23 would be the multi year low and also matching last year’s low. I personally feel that all is not lost even if that level is broken and $2 could be support (if at all it reaches there)

8/ If it goes still lower than $2, then things could start to get ugly. I’ve not really analysed anything to see and we’d need to see old 2012-2014 charts to see where was the next line of support.

9/ SYR’s best hope IMO is that shorters get a chance to cover at around 2.23, get bored and move on. I note that latest shorter’s chart shows a level of 18.5% which is lower than normal 20% level
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=syr

10/ $94 million insto placement is fully underwritten. SPP $14 million is not underwritten. Probably, the 14 million is to give retail shareholders a chance to get in, and company might not be after those funds.

11/ Instos getting in at the placement price might also want to get a profit on their shares and take share price up in time. This could theoretically also offer some support at the lows, which migh look good on the chart, if at all that happens.

Final words- I’m just sharing some random thoughts and some positives/negatives on the CR. Can’t really say that I know where it going from here (although I'm definitely not surprised we've reached here if you see my earlier comments), as this is a very key zone, as I’ve mentioned since some time.

SYR would want at least $2 to hold or things might turn very ugly. Alternatively, this could be a complete bottoming possibility once again, like last year.
Good luck.