Ann: Trading Halt-SYR.AX, page-163

Hi @MrKopel

As I mentioned earlier, I don’t consider myself a chartist either. But since you mentioned charts and how the richest investor (assuming you mean Buffett) does not follow charts or price action, let me share some stuff –

1/ I’ve never seen Buffett in a mining company. Maybe he has held some, but he is not generally well known for mining companies. I have a hunch that there is a good chance that Buffett wouldn’t be caught dead investing in SYR
There are way too many issues that can go wrong with an individual company, let alone with commodity sector macro. As I’ve mentioned, graphite macro is a key part of my analysis at all time.

2/ Buffett’s favourite holding period is forever. The average hotcopper punter’s favourite holding period is, well.... a loooooooot less

3/ Buffett has billions of spare dollars to top up, etc. or even to keep him going in rough times. He actually can afford to hold on forever. Once more, the average hotcopper punter simply cannot.

I can give you many more reasons but I’ve come to the conclusion that Buffett’s strategy might suit him very well but can often be suicidal if mum and dad shareholders try to follow them blindly.

I do agree with the merits of long term investing though if shareholders have the patience for it. I used to consider myself a long term investor but am always trying to learn better ways of managing my capital.

I want to give you a simple example to think about – Assume you had SYR shares worth 100,000 at the time of SYR’s all time high in June 2016. Let us say that someone came here with warnings that the best returns on SYR might have already been made and passed a generally bearish comment
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt-syr-ax.2791786/page-51?post_id=18063509

Let us assume that you sold that 100,000 and then forgot about it.

Let us then assume that someone talked about a potential low of 2.39 as early as December 2, 2016
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt-syr-ax.2791786/page-107?post_id=21076760

And then one day after the 2.23 bottom in March 2017, someone actually suggested that a bottom could be in
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt-syr-ax.2791786/page-132?post_id=23416362

Let us assume that you purchased shares of 100,000 again then (your free capital from earlier), and finally decided to sell not even at the top in January 2018 but midway at around 4.5 or so. You now have 200,000 worth to invest and could buy back the shares now with that 200,000 capital.

Alternatively if someone has not acted at all, their shares are now worth only 33,000. This is a huge difference. Well, the links about are some actual analysis that I have passed on SYR. So, this is actual action that I would have taken based on actual analysis if I was interested in SYR.

Nevertheless, I fully respect your decision to not follow price day to day action if you have conviction in SYR as a long term investment. As I said, I love long term investing too. Good luck with your investment and hope it works well for you.

Hi @djwillis

Here is my best analysis on last 3 day’s action –

Key levels - 2; 2.24; 2.39/2.44/2.5; 2.64; around 2.8; 3; 3.2 (3.15 and 3.25); 3.45 to 3.53; 3.65; 4; 4.5; 4.72

Monday – As I mentioned on Sunday, around 2.39 could be bottom trendline of bearish price channel and some bounce could be due, maybe even a healthy one. Also, 2.39 is old support and could also be a bottom. So, there were logical reasons for at least some bounce.
WE topped off on Monday at 2.49 (just below key level 2.5) as bulls were probably little apprehensive

Tuesday – Bulls are now encouraged and continue the bounce. Shorters smash the bulls (look at shorting volume) a little before the 2.64 resistance. Still a pretty healthy close of 2.6
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=syr

Wednesday – High of 2.61 but bulls get cold feet. Shorters also may have hit again today. A close of 2.5 seems nice and safe – exactly on the key level

Volume of rise was okay but nothing spectacular. AS I’ve mentioned, “2.23 to 2.5” is a major inflection point zone and price could go anywhere from here - definitely not disputing that.

I don’t think shorters are ever going to be squeezed though. This is one of the main points I have been making all along that shorting is one of the biggest risks that SYR is facing. Shorters did not even lose their cool when SYR doubled from lows of March 2017 at the start of the year. Shorting could IMO continue to be one of the key risks that SYR faces. This is one of the most important reasons IMO why this is a very high alert zone to see how this plays out.

Nevertheless, good luck with your investment