@Autosime - Oil only Auto ... gas was not expected and is a net...

@Autosime - Oil only Auto ... gas was not expected and is a net negative IMO. As you say watch out if flow rates stated in BOE
Most wells require Workovers ... timing is variable but you would expect something around the 5 year mark. Depends on work of it is consider LOE or capex.

@plough, I'm willing to concede that the "virgin ground" could lead to higher flow rates ... might also lead to higher decline if not choke managed. That will be hard to tell short term gain vs long term benefit. RoT has been Higher Initial Production rates leads to shorter payback times but lower overall EUR. I also absolutely agree, that absent any productivity gain in drilling technology, these wells should be the best wells AKK has to offer ... with all the 3D and Scientific Analysis purported to have been done to select the best drill locations ... so on that basis any disappointment in flow rates will be highly negative (anything positive over the P50 basis is expected based on selection and virgin ground).

Not following you and Auto on the timeframe and formation. Within the Pierre Shale formation the producing member is Sharon Springs which actually sources its oil from the Niobrara .... AKK own Resource report "... The Niobrara has not produced in the immediate area of the subject, but is known to be present and to have sourced the production from the shallower Pierre Shale which produced from the Florence Field in this area.".

These wells are not the horizontal shale wells that are drilled in EFS or Permian or Bakken or DJ-Basin. They are more like a conventional vertical well drilled into say the Wolfcamp of the Permian.


@Jackpot - highly amusing. You have absolutely nothing to substantiate those numbers (of $5K, $10K, $20K per acre). AKK bought this acreage for about $200/acre back in 2012 when unproven land had greater value than it has today. Those prices you quote are for acreage with significant PDP Reserves, PUDs and 2P Reserves. AKK, having spent Millions on Pathfinder has yet to produce a Reserves Report that has any Reserves attributable to Pathfinder. Contingent Resources given for 20 Million barrels oil with this annotation

"those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. Contingent Resources may include,for example, projects for which there are currently no viable markets, or where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality.”The contingency in this case is that evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality."

IMO the list has not started.

Good luck punters