hi kepo and others,
yep, i have been hit fairly hard here... i was relying to an extent on forecasts of profits and free cashlfow for 2018 (and 2017). Unfortunately, i probably wrote off 2017 results and variations to forecasts a bit too easily based on indue acquisition delay etc...
to be honest, i haven't gone back over any of the announcements again as yet since this debacle began... and have barely viewed the threads here... i have been busy with work and some short holiday leave, and to be honest, not sure i want or can be bothered to give it the head space.... but, naturally, i really should go back over it to work it out, along with my own investment decision shortcomings on STL here.
my biggest comfort was that on face value, ignoring even the business itself, this had a smart accountant (i.e. numbers man), with extensive industry experience that knows the business really well with massive skin in the game steering the ship...massive skin in the game won't cover up for management shortcomings, but, i also didn't take todd for bad management either.... i understand the anger, but, i am not convinced there was any devilish deceit here.... i think management well and truly thought the business was going to go places but needed refinancing.... I think the equity left on the table was far too large for there to have been any intention in the slightest for what has transpired. But, then again, i don't know what exactly happened...
the refinance appears to have not worked out, and the business was leaking cash well in excess of the forecasts it would appear...i assume the forecast was prepared on a monthly basis getting better and better each month, as eftpos and more atm's and independent deployers were forecast to sign up with starlink (indue).
i am not sure whether the atm fees cut ended up effecting the bottom line or not, i can only assume it did.... i did feel comfortable in STL's selection criteria for sites, but, maybe some of the other ATM deployers using indue were not as so strict in selection criteria.... But, the very brief numbers provided in the chairman's update of 10.10.17 were actually from Indue's data set based on all their independent deployers...but again, maybe i'm too trusting of the numbers being reported....
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4wq+yBT2v+Rt87FiGug=
So at this stage I am left thinking that cashflow was left too tight for comfort and that the financier gave no leniency and pulled the pin when alternative refinancing fell through.... which admittedly, they're legally entitled to do, and probably shouldn't be blamed.
rajen, i just read your post while typing this... i apologise if i gave you grief and if my arguing or promotion persuaded your decision... everything i said was based off evidence/material provided to us by the company... i believed it to be reliable and argued my stance upon that...
my absence here certainly hasn't been due to getting out early or anything like that, i have been hit fairly hard investment wise.... I was preferring to clear my head of anger and confusion and pretty much bottom drawer it.... on the off chance that anything can come out of this...
i can only speculate like all others what might come of this.... there are certainly some big holders that are in deep that may still see the potential of the company long term, particularly with the eftpos business deal and possibly the Bitcoin stuff (although foreign to me and no idea whether it would be profitable)...
well help try keep this aliveThey certainly have the NEO shares to sell, but, not to forget NEO owns 10% of STL also.... so they stand to lose both a big investment, along with what appears to be a successful distribution channel of their products... So they may well help try to keep this alive.
