2 years and you're right... but its not 2 year game.
Agree with the tears, lots of them, but I'm assigning them to low grade plays... just like every other resource, once balance is returned low cost producers kill the others.
Probably need 40% growth to absorb the new HG production I know of... less the market requirement of maybe 5% in stores.
TNG & KRC will do just fine at $15/lb IF they can get up... won't last though.