Yes this is a great presentation. It tells everything other than who would be the offtakers, JV partners etc . I have focused on the key points below;
The operating cash cost is quite low at US$4.27/lb. I think it will bring down to somewhere between US$3.50 - $3-70 by the new improvements in mine and process design (with the controbution of base metals). Then TMT will have one of the lowest cash cost producer in the world.
The low cash cost is going to be for a high purity product, over 99.7% V2O5..!
And the most important point is when you have a low cost product at very high purity and grade, you can confidently talk and offer it to the end users and develop strong relations.
What else they could tell us more clearer than this! "Final product dispatched to multiple end-users to perform testwork"
I believe TMT will be under the radar of many end user companies, including very large steel companies both from west and eastern part of the world, like Krupp from Germany or Posco from Sth Korea. (Not mentioning China here now). This is only for steel making.
Using it in steel is main driver of current demand increase. New Chinese Rebar standards will increase usage from 48gr to European/USA levels of ~85gr in a tonne of steel.
Steel for construction
and high strength steel for cars (HSLA & AHSS) lighter cars for fuel or battery efficiency, lighter but stronger cars for safety,
It's all made mainly by vanadium and niobium (and some other elements) in steel.
Did you know your car has different strength steel all around it? This was not like that 25 years ago. This is a new standard for cars.
World needs more and more steel;
"150 million tonnes of incremental steel demand only for BRI Project ... Chinese steel production is yet to peak. The most likely timing of the peak is the middle of next decade" says BHP.
China's BRI is already seven times larger than the Marshall Plan. BRI includes 68 countries or regions. They cover a vast area of Eurasia and parts of Africa and Oceania. They house half the world’s population and comprise almost one third of the global economy.
BHP says "We have carried out a bottom up study of BRI,... Our project database began with a collection of over 2,000 projects identified as being linked to BRI.... It is from this sample that we derive our spending figure of US$1.3 trillion and our bottom-up steel demand estimates;
"BRI projects could result in up to 150 million tonnes of incremental steel demand. Of that amount, 80 per cent would be used in structures and reinforced concrete, with 20 per cent going into machinery and other equipment ... Spread over a 10-year period, this amounts to an additional 15 million tonnes per annum, or 3 per cent to 4 per cent incremental demand growth for steel in BRI regions. This is considerable, as it would double the growth rate of local steel demand observed since 2011".
"..we consider, our base case remains that Chinese steel production is yet to peak. The most likely timing of the peak is the middle of next decade."
By 2025 #vanadium consumption will hit 133ktpa even without any increase due to VRF battery projects.
Not mentioning VRF batteries market yet. If VRFB market opens its doors for mass production, TMT is going to be the Pilbara Minerals of Vanadium. At the other hand all of the crap vanadium projects in Australia and other parts of the world will be in high demand.
It would require 2 new plants (size of Bushveld's Vametco) to come on stream each & every year for the next 7 years.
The usage of VRB is at its infancy.
I can't imagine how much V2O5 would be needed for storage solutions with VRF batteries. It will be in very high demand.
Calculation for demand;
1MW energy storage requires 10t of V2O5. 1GW will require 10kt of V2O5. 25GW of storage would require 250kt of V2O5
250kt is the triple of current world consumption...!
Think that China is making commercial and military ships powered by Vanadium Redox Flow batteries.
See the tanks filled with V2O5 (plus sulphuric acid) as anode and cathode of the battery; RedoxWind project in Pfinztal, Germany
I can't imagine when the commercial and military ships are powered by Vanadium Redox Flow batteries!
The applications with Vanadium seems to be endless because of amazing properties of V element.
Lithium vanadium phosphate batteries, a rising star in the cathode family... vanadium is being explored as alternative cathode for lithium-ion batteries. They charge far faster and are more powerful than other type of Li-Ion batteries. Currently, cathode performance limits energy-power density in Li-ion batteries. This type of cathode is still under research though. Lithium vanadium phosphate battery has attracted more attentionin recent years because it can display a high average potential (44.0 V) and specific capacity (197 mAh/g) with excellent structural stability during cycling. There are problems to be solved though (the separated VO6 octahedra intrinsicallylimit electrical conductivity, which hurts the rate capability).
TMT Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held