I agree with your thoughts. Prior to the debt refinancing announcement by target range for this seasonal up swing ( given that this years harvest meets expectations) was 1.90 - 2.05. With the refinancing I'm prepared to bump that up 10-15c.
Some shorter's were wounded in Feb & Mar. By late April less than 5% of the stock was shorted (down from a 9.3% peak in February), however over the next few months this grew to 6.6%. In the last two days they just got kicked again and must be running for cover, which explains today's action. Will this be enough to discourage them?
For some of the smaller shorter's yes, but not for the big player who has the ability to influence the price direction though the peaks and troughs, its too much of a cash cow for them. Like you I think that the volatility of the swings will lessen somewhat and that sub $1.40 may not be seen again if this next peak reaches over $2.00. However sub $1.60 is certainly on the cards.
Examine the chart from 2014 onward's. Every peak is like a lopsided javelin steep on the upside less steep on the down side, but almost all of them finished in under 10 days. The opposite is true for the gorges at the bottom of the cycle less steep going down, very steep upswings. Try to find over that three year period 20 days when the stock stays steady for a month, very very rare. My point is that this stock has been a cash cow for a big shorter and I don't think it will stop yet.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.64 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
