good post and I feel you have a as good a read as any on how MACA and BDRs relationship has gone.
That being said, I am actually not really surprised at the announcement, or that the SP did not move.
The size of what is owed is also not new. SJ is pretty much pinning everything on the upgrade.
There have never really been any issues with plant, its always been about whether they can feed it.
The upgrade will enable the company to actually have the ore to do so. I doubt the deal would have been done if BDR management (yes... they clearly have a lot to achieve to get back a good rep) believed it was going to be able to continue as a going concern with them as the main contractor.
That being said, I think the actual financial terms are quite lenient really, $3m due soon, then nothing for 9 months? No hidden costs if BDR want to pay early (Oh how I wish this might occur, but... the option is there). Sure, it adds to their yearly cost JID, but then it has been since that terrible deal was done back in 2015.
So... for me, its an overall positive. Are there huge risks. Yep.
The company does have approx 7 years of mine life, which I believe will be economical at approx $1200 USD, how profitable...? $100m dollar question and I am sure if its slightly decent, SJ will be crowing about it soon, or probably not loudly yet... he has burnt so much credibility, he is making Malcolm Turnbull blush.
The company is going to have to work damn hard to build itself up as a credible operator again. The next 9 months are obviously very important. If they do succeed in commissioning the upgrade, add in the reduced power costs and a (who knows) relatively decent gold price, then BDR could rise from the ashes.
Just to be clear though, this share only sits in my super fund, as my single long shot.
I did ok with DRM rising from the ashes. But then... BDR is on another level of painful
Good luck to holders, I think BDR perhaps might eventually get some.
If nothing else, they just keep finding more gold! (and yes, as BLK proves, that does not matter much if you cannot make any profit).
BDR Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
