Here's a comparison of the dilution under Pak's buy in approach versus a CR.
1. Based on $500M Project
A. Pak Approach
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
Column 8
Column 9
Column 10
Column 11
Column 12
0
Pak's Funds ($M)
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
1
Pak's Stake
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2
Shares (m)
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
3
Project ($M)
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
4
GMC's Project Share ($M)
$450.0
$425.0
$400.0
$375.0
$350.0
$325.0
$300.0
$275.0
$250.0
$225.0
$200.0
5
Share Price
$0.25
$0.24
$0.22
$0.21
$0.19
$0.18
$0.17
$0.15
$0.14
$0.13
$0.11
6
Effective Dilution
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
B. CR to SI
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
Column 8
Column 9
Column 10
Column 11
Column 12
0
Capital Raising US ($M)
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
1
Capital Raising AUD ($M)
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
2
Effective Raising Price
$0.0075
$0.0100
$0.0125
$0.0150
$0.0175
$0.0200
$0.0225
$0.0250
$0.0275
$0.0300
$0.0325
3
Additional Shares (m)
1,738
1,304
1,043
869
745
652
579
522
474
435
401
4
Total Shares (m)
3,538
3,104
2,843
2,669
2,545
2,452
2,379
2,322
2,274
2,235
2,201
5
Project ($M)
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
$500.0
6
Share Price
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.19
$0.20
$0.20
$0.21
$0.22
$0.22
$0.22
$0.23
7
Effective Dilution
49%
42%
37%
33%
29%
27%
24%
22%
21%
19%
18%
2. Below based on a $250M project
A. Pak Approach
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
Column 8
Column 9
Column 10
Column 11
Column 12
0
Pak's Funds ($M)
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
1
Pak's Stake
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2
Shares (m)
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
3
Project ($M)
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
4
GMC's Project Share ($M)
$225.0
$212.5
$200.0
$187.5
$175.0
$162.5
$150.0
$137.5
$125.0
$112.5
$100.0
5
Share Price
$0.13
$0.12
$0.11
$0.10
$0.10
$0.09
$0.08
$0.08
$0.07
$0.06
$0.06
6
Effective Dilution
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
B. CR to SI
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
Column 8
Column 9
Column 10
Column 11
Column 12
0
Capital Raising US ($M)
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
1
Capital Raising AUD ($M)
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
2
Effective Raising Price
$0.0075
$0.0100
$0.0125
$0.0150
$0.0175
$0.0200
$0.0225
$0.0250
$0.0275
$0.0300
$0.0325
3
Additional Shares (m)
1,738
1,304
1,043
869
745
652
579
522
474
435
401
4
Total Shares (m)
3,538
3,104
2,843
2,669
2,545
2,452
2,379
2,322
2,274
2,235
2,201
5
Project ($M)
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
$250.0
6
Share Price
$0.07
$0.08
$0.09
$0.09
$0.10
$0.10
$0.11
$0.11
$0.11
$0.11
$0.11
7
Effective Dilution
49%
42%
37%
33%
29%
27%
24%
22%
21%
19%
18%
Points of note:
1. The effective dilution is independent of the Project valuation (obviously)
2. Under the Pak scenario, we would have had a local Indonesian with skin in the game and local connections - so the effective dilution could be lower under the Pak scenario to compensate for this factor.
3. Our baseline effective dilution was 10% with Pak Marthen involved (and having skin in the game). How management's performance should be assessed going forward should be relative to how much we are additionally diluted.
GMC Price at posting:
4.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held