GMC 0.00% 0.6¢ gulf manganese corporation limited

Ann: Termination of Binding Agreement, page-296

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  1. 2,345 Posts.
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    Here's a comparison of the dilution under Pak's buy in approach versus a CR.
    1. Based on $500M Project
    A. Pak Approach
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12
    0 Pak's Funds ($M) $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0
    1 Pak's Stake 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
    2 Shares (m) 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800
    3 Project ($M) $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0
    4 GMC's Project Share ($M) $450.0 $425.0 $400.0 $375.0 $350.0 $325.0 $300.0 $275.0 $250.0 $225.0 $200.0
    5 Share Price $0.25 $0.24 $0.22 $0.21 $0.19 $0.18 $0.17 $0.15 $0.14 $0.13 $0.11
    6 Effective Dilution 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

    B. CR to SI
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12
    0 Capital Raising US ($M) $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0
    1 Capital Raising AUD ($M) $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0
    2 Effective Raising Price $0.0075 $0.0100 $0.0125 $0.0150 $0.0175 $0.0200 $0.0225 $0.0250 $0.0275 $0.0300 $0.0325
    3 Additional Shares (m) 1,738 1,304 1,043 869 745 652 579 522 474 435 401
    4 Total Shares (m) 3,538 3,104 2,843 2,669 2,545 2,452 2,379 2,322 2,274 2,235 2,201
    5 Project ($M) $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0 $500.0
    6 Share Price $0.14 $0.16 $0.18 $0.19 $0.20 $0.20 $0.21 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 $0.23
    7 Effective Dilution 49% 42% 37% 33% 29% 27% 24% 22% 21% 19% 18%

    2. Below based on a $250M project
    A. Pak Approach
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12
    0 Pak's Funds ($M) $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0
    1 Pak's Stake 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
    2 Shares (m) 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800
    3 Project ($M) $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0
    4 GMC's Project Share ($M) $225.0 $212.5 $200.0 $187.5 $175.0 $162.5 $150.0 $137.5 $125.0 $112.5 $100.0
    5 Share Price $0.13 $0.12 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06
    6 Effective Dilution 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

    B. CR to SI
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12
    0 Capital Raising US ($M) $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0 $10.0
    1 Capital Raising AUD ($M) $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0 $13.0
    2 Effective Raising Price $0.0075 $0.0100 $0.0125 $0.0150 $0.0175 $0.0200 $0.0225 $0.0250 $0.0275 $0.0300 $0.0325
    3 Additional Shares (m) 1,738 1,304 1,043 869 745 652 579 522 474 435 401
    4 Total Shares (m) 3,538 3,104 2,843 2,669 2,545 2,452 2,379 2,322 2,274 2,235 2,201
    5 Project ($M) $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0 $250.0
    6 Share Price $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11
    7 Effective Dilution 49% 42% 37% 33% 29% 27% 24% 22% 21% 19% 18%

    Points of note:
    1. The effective dilution is independent of the Project valuation (obviously)
    2. Under the Pak scenario, we would have had a local Indonesian with skin in the game and local connections - so the effective dilution could be lower under the Pak scenario to compensate for this factor.
    3. Our baseline effective dilution was 10% with Pak Marthen involved (and having skin in the game). How management's performance should be assessed going forward should be relative to how much we are additionally diluted.
 
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