With the greatest respect your calculations are wrong.
Given that we don't know what their margins are going to be it is an impossible calculation to make. As the spot price of Manganese climbs then so does the project's input costs. The company originally talked about clipping the ticket to the tune of approx USD250 per ton. On top of these guestimates then assume that the reconditioned smelters process less ore than the planned newer ones will. Still, for arguments sake let us just assume that each smelter can produce 20,000 tons pa. Using these rough numbers we reach a gross P&L of USD10Mil before we then start knocking off all costs associated with running the entire operation. I can't remember what the costs will be but I am guessing somewhere in the region of USD5mil.
So, back of cigarettes packet numbers would suggest USD5mil pa of net profit. Put it on a PE multiple of 6 and convert to AUD should give you a market cap of approx $40mil.
Put away the champagne for now - wait for the full 8 smelters and then the $$$ really will roll in - IF!
GMC Price at posting:
4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
