Mobile isn't looking great, and a big gamble to see how 5G goes....

Mobile isn't looking great, and a big gamble to see how 5G goes.

Churn is trending up from 10.9% in pcp, to 11.2% in 2H18 to 12% now, and even with ARPU falling a bit (and to decline faster it seems). It seems to be a reasonable reaction to the increase in Churn rates. The Churn rates had been falling since 2g was switched off. I was hoping that the ARPU outlook would improve with TPG pulling out of mobile, and more likely merging with HTA and not needing to play kill the market any more, with a bigger base to protect.

Mobile broadband is really getting hit, with SIOs down 6% after being flat last year. ARPU down 12% is a huge fall. That doesn't look like much brand loyalty there. Anybody have any reasons for this?

Mobile margins are down about 10% v pcp. That is a nasty whack. Hardware revenue is up 10% within all of that.

I'm not sure how profitable overall hardware is, but that was a great revenue number IMO. Maybe that benefits from Churn and lower ARPU on the service component. Doesn't really reflect an advantage to Telstra IMO, as everybody sells these at about the same price. Does anybody have any idea of how margins are going in that area?

We will be needing to build 5G upon the base that Telstra will have in a few years time, and that base is weaker than I expected. It also seems that within the lower ARPU, handset and hardware is winning share of ARPU, and service provision is losing.