re: Ann: Target's Update - Interim Advice... The rise in the...

re: Ann: Target's Update - Interim Advice... The rise in the share price suggests the market is betting that the bidder will need to increase the offer price (either by increasing the price above $0.12 or by not reducing the offer price by the $0.03 amount of the capital return). The market is quite possibly interpreting the announcement of the capital return and its proposed timing as a sign that the independent directors might not recommend the offer at its current price.

A complication is that the bidder has already declared that the offer price is final and won't be increased unless there is a competing offer. This suggests it is unlikely the bidder will increase the offer price (and quite possibly prevents it from increasing the offer price even if it wanted to).