AUSTRALIA'S east coast is facing a potential gas shortfall of 155 petajoules of gas by 2019, energy consultant EnergyQuest says.
ENERGYQUEST says supply assumptions made by the energy forecaster the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) paint an "unrealistically optimistic" picture of gas supply for domestic use amid tightening supply.
Chief executive Graeme Bethune said AEMO's estimates for demand in Queensland appeared to be too low and its estimates for the Cooper Basin were too high.
"A significant short-term supply gap has re-emerged, which increases to over 200 petajoules per annum early next decade," Dr Bethune said.
"AEMO significantly under-estimates gas reserve risk, relying on production from fields to which geoscientists might only assign a probability of success of 10 per cent or, which are not yet demonstrated to be technically or economically producible."
AEMO's conclusions would act as a barrier to further east coast gas development in NSW and onshore Victoria, he said.
It comes as energy companies reduce their exploration and capital expenditure forecasts because of lower oil prices.
Adelaide-based Energy Quest provides energy analysis and advice to companies and governments.
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