estseon,
Fair set of points.
There is no way they will bid cash so scrap that one. I honestly think AUT will bid for EKA within the next couple of weeks.
From AUT's perspective it makes fundamental sense to grow these assets through a greater interest. EKA and AUT are very close and have a very similar register and up until yesterday, common directors. Yeah you might have to pay a little premium on the listed price but that is what you need to do to TO companies. The simple thing to remember is that none of the JVPs have yet realised their full value - the flow rates will keep coming, the reserve will be upgraded, the land value will continue to ratchet up and then the revenue will roll in. This is field development now and they should get that 6.25% for under $40M (in a scrip deal) ASAP - it will be worth much more than that soon enough. Bloody bargain.
I will have a little sportsman's bet with you mate to see if AUT makes a move. I am convinced it will happen but I have been wrong many times before.
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