I am guessing but I think that agentm's comment might refer to...

I am guessing but I think that agentm's comment might refer to media headlines such as:

"Oil May Fall as Home Sales, Jobs Signal Faltering Recovery, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk - Jul 2, 2010

Crude oil may fall next week as data on manufacturing, jobless claims and home sales bolster concern the U.S. economic recovery is faltering, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Twenty of 38 analysts, or 53 percent, forecast crude oil will decline through July 9. Ten respondents, or 26 percent, predicted that futures will be little changed and eight saw an increase. Last week an equal number of analysts forecast a gain or drop."

HOWEVER

"The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 48 percent of the time since its start in April 2004."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-02/oil-may-fall-as-home-sales-jobs-signal-faltering-recovery-survey-shows.html

WHICH MEANS

You'd expect to have been more accurate yourself over that period of 6 years if you'd spun a coin.


Nevertheless, sentiment is not good and confidence is fragile. Civil unrest in response to the austerity measures in Europe is a possibility - there has already been some in Greece and Spain. The strength of the Spanish banks is in question because of exposure to the speculative property market.

The jvps, however, are producing oil and gas in the biggest market in the world, a market that had planned to be partially supplied by offshore production.

Not being able to call the market but retaining longer term confidence in the project, I remain invested but at a lower level than I would be in more stable conditions. I cannot lose more than I made on ADI. It all sounds a bit pathetic but I feel that a lot hangs on whether sufficient confidence can be maintained in the financial markets.

Much to my surprise, I am eligible to participate in the new issue and will tender under option 6.